Ten thoughts on real estate in 2022

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I originally thought that the epidemic would be a severe challenge to the real estate market in 2021. What I never expected was that the regulation represented by the “three red lines” of finance and the “dual concentration” of land that started in the second half of the year led to the rapid development of developers before. Suddenly encountered a huge challenge that has not been encountered in decades, and even if it fails to deal with it, it will cause a systemic liquidity risk for the leading enterprises in the real estate industry. The problems and difficulties that have occurred and are about to occur will bring enterprises and the industry. Huge crisis and stress test. Facing the upcoming 2022, how should real estate companies face, how to change, and how to “live” better?

The large real estate policy environment has undergone innovative changes. Avoiding disorderly expansion of capital and de-realization of the industry is the correct response that every real estate company must make.

The debt ratio of real estate itself is very high. If there is excessive leverage in downstream commercial bills and corporate wealth management products, it is a manifestation of the disorderly expansion of capital and needs to be contained in a timely manner. Real estate itself should not become the vanguard of wealth creation, but should become the carrier of various science and technology, manufacturing, and regional development industries and the role of the provider of the people’s happiness industry and the stock life service industry.

The merger and reorganization of real estate companies is continuing, not only from big to small, but from strong to weak. It is also a financially sound reorganization and disposal of radical companies.

Some large companies have already breached contracts. We have experience in handling Guangxin, Anbang, HNA, and Huaxin. At the same time, we will implement that individual cases will not affect the overall situation, overseas debt will not affect industry ratings, and corporate issues will not affect the overall situation. The principle that affects the issue of market delivery and delivery shall be handled and dealt with in a smooth, orderly, legal and market-oriented manner for the out-of-risk enterprises.

Chen Sheng, Dean of China Real Estate Data Research Institute, Top Ten Thoughts on Real Estate in 2022

The real estate investment region has further intensified due to the influx of population and the level of urban management and control. Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and the Yangtze River Delta have begun to lead the Bohai Rim and the cold northeast region. The need for new undertaking regions for China’s real estate economy is highlighted.

Traditional real estate hotspots perform more differently under the stimulus of the demographic dividend. The areas with faster population growth in the 7th census than the 6th census are: Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhuhai, Xiamen, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Chengdu, Haikou and the third outlet to the sea. The region-the cities on the Huai River Ecological Economic Belt will have full development opportunities in the future.

The power of real estate financial regulation has been fully demonstrated. Target quota management is the data target of regulation-a total capital scale of 90 trillion yuan. The “three red lines” constraint is a long-term mechanism for real estate finance.

Comrades Shang Fulin, Guo Shuqing, and Yi Gang, the competent authorities and leaders of real estate finance, have a relatively clear control logic and context for real estate finance issues. The current financial issues are only stressful corrections and treatments, and a large-scale reverse policy system. It is unlikely to appear. On January 1, 2022, the credit line indicators provided by financial institutions for real estate companies and enterprises of different ownership types will be an important key indicator for judging the degree of financial tightness next year.

The transfer of the land market has brought challenges to the fiscal revenues of local governments. The decline in land market revenues and the acquisition of land by more state-owned local urban investment companies have curbed land revenue. The expected land revenue in 2022 Whether to recover depends on whether large and stable private enterprises can enter the market.

The direct bidding, auction, and listing revenue of 6 trillion yuan will show a decline and decline, but the local government will partially adjust the “highest price” bidding, auction and listing method to become the land transfer method of benchmark bidding. More use of urban renewal policies, urban renewal funds, industrial additional models to target real estate companies such as China Communications, China Merchants, Poly, Vanke, etc., and insurance funds directly intervene in the new land transfer method of industry-city linkage.

The strategy of real estate companies will undergo huge changes in the context of changes in the policy environment. Companies must clearly accept the 30% gross profit “syllogism” thinking.

Specifically, the first 10% of gross profit will come from the opportunities of financial, insurance, and quasi-financial central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and the second 10% of gross profit will come from product construction, design, and construction. The third 10% of the gross profit will come from the income from the operation and maintenance, renewal, and empowerment of the real estate community, business, parks, and office. A company with good three general characteristics can also take 30% of the gross profit, but it is also possible Companies that are unable to meet the requirements can only carry out deep cultivation with 20% or even only 10% of the profit share.

The industrial-city model has been further upgraded. Under the new requirements of the times, the “dual carbon” goal, the “trilateral” theory of urban renewal, the hard constraints on asset income of real estate tax, and the requirements of common prosperity in the real estate industry will all be deepened. The strategic formula of the entire industry is affected and even fissioned.

The “dual carbon” target puts forward the requirements of carbon efficiency codes for material procurement, construction methods, updating and demolition methods, and energy-saving and green methods of operation and maintenance of real estate. Enterprises and individuals that cannot achieve low-carbon, zero-carbon, and carbon-negative Not the qualifications for development and the qualifications for buying a house. The 21 urban renewal pilot cities will also form a new interface between urban renewal and real estate development in terms of “demolition, reform and retention” and “retention, reform and demolition”. Real estate has evolved from an absolute shortage of supply to a pattern under the new situation where supply and demand are basically balanced.

The pattern of new real estate market of 17 trillion yuan and the pattern of second-hand housing of 5 trillion yuan will show corresponding changes. The declining ladder can still be balanced in the overall market. 420 million sets of urban housing will change as my country’s urbanization rate changes. To balance itself at a high level, the upstream and downstream markets should pay close attention to the mutual substitution opportunities between the incremental market and the stock market.

The absolute high of the new housing market may appear in 2021. The extreme point has already appeared, and there is a high probability that it will slowly decline in the future, but the amount may also be adjusted within 5% when the average price rises slightly. The steel connected by Vale and other mining companies, including cement and glass, as well as downstream furniture, home furnishing, and decoration companies, and even valuation, sales, and design service companies, must make adequate preparations for the overall destiny, scale and structural changes of the industry .

The real estate industry has undergone real adjustments and systemic shocks. It should make a contribution to a mature industry in terms of cycle theory, corporate organization model, human resource structure, and financial stability model.

Real estate should no longer be an extensive industry. The pricing model should no longer be in the millions, but should be in the 10,000 yuan. The refined financial model, operation and maintenance model, corporate philosophy, and incentive mechanism should contribute to the wisdom of the real estate industry. The tried-and-tested “follow-up investment model”, “amoeba organization”, and “big diversification model” should all make right or wrong case contributions to the management discipline. Entrepreneurs like Matsushita Konosuke should emerge instead of the creator of the richest man. .

Real estate digitization, sales agency, strategic research, low-carbon green recycling and sustainable development are essentially the application of Metaverse in the direction of real estate.

Metaverse is not a mystery. The real estate and construction industries have already been applied. In the application scenarios of holographic construction of BIM and digital Xiong’an, and in the immersive use of holographic information shopping mall cultural tourism projects, virtual live broadcast, customer service, and call centers have been widely used. The application is fully integrated in virtual and real integration, three-dimensional map overlay applications, virtual real estate sales, and interactive blending between real people and virtual imaging. Finally, in the virtual and real linkage, robots lay the floor in the construction scene, paint, and collect information and feedback to the property. Improvements, based on crowdfunding information, ideas and finally turned into real room design, low-carbon data changes the real-world purchase qualifications will have a huge impact in the future, all consulting, sales, planning, finance, technology, and service companies It may finally create a new world of real estate services under the logic of the real estate meta-universe.

In the current relatively difficult real estate situation, we give a warm torch to entrepreneurs who have been fighting for this industry for more than ten years or even decades. To live toward death, the heart is strong, only human beings are boundless and unbounded. Temporary difficulties will eventually pass. The ideal of choosing a high place, the environment of finding a flat place, and walking to the widest place in the heart, the strong heart can actively enter the world. , Good efforts, contributions to the industry, homebuyers, and society will not disappear, and the unhindered will not cause big fear.

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